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Africa

The African continent is undergoing profound transformations. It is affected in particular, by traditional and hybrid threats, growing violent extremism, structural and climate-related vulnerabilities, and migratory pressures.

At the same time, the continent is also witnessing fast-paced political, economic, and technological progress. This is profoundly changing its societies and institutions, and triggering a new prominence of African countries in a multipolar world. 

Recent shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, have accelerated those pre-existing trends.  

The relationship between the European Union and African countries and institutions is also evolving, reflecting the new and more competitive geopolitical realities.

The Joint Communication “Towards a comprehensive Strategy with Africa” calls for a strengthened EU’s strategic alliance with Africa. It shall enhance cooperation on global and multilateral affairs based on a clear understanding of respective and mutual interests and responsibilities. The Strategy also highlights shared commitments, such as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and Agenda 2063

EUISS research on Africa

The EUISS provides innovative research, analysis and advice to support EU and Member States’ strategies and policies towards Africa. Our objective is contributing to forge a stronger partnership between the two continents.

The EUISS uses its convening power to facilitate knowledge sharing, brainstorming, consensus building and dialogues with stakeholders and local partners, to break new ground on matters affecting Africa-EU relations. The Institute looks at evolving conflict dynamics across the continent, formulating recommendations on how to strengthen the implementation of the EU’s integrated approach.

The EUISS also monitors political, economic and security trends in countries at risk of falling or relapsing into conflict, to make the case for prevention when EU action can be impactful, using strategic foresight methodologies.

Finally, the EUISS studies the African geopolitical landscape and the role of new geopolitical actors projecting their influence in the continent, as well as related emerging challenges, such as cyber risks and hybrid threats.

Flagship initiatives

African Trilogy – Chaillot Papers

Three flagship publications exploring the new geo-strategic landscape in Africa:

  • African Strategies analyses the evolution of European and global actors’ strategies towards the continent, as a result of the “new scramble for Africa”.
  • African Futures 2030 uses foresight scenarios to explore the implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area for peace and prosperity.
  • African Spaces accounts for physical and non-physical spaces where geopolitical competition takes place in the continent.

EUISS-COAFR Meetings 

Since January 2019, the EUISS organises regular meetings with the European Council’s Working Party on Africa (COAFR). Sessions are designed to provide delegates of EU Member States with innovative approaches and facilitate knowledge-sharing on selected regions, countries, or topics, contributing to Africa-related policy planning and joint analysis.

Conflict Series – Policy Briefs

The Conflict Series examines contemporary conflict situations and conflict-related thematic issues with the aim of contributing to enhanced conflict analysis that serves policy planning and policymaking. Several analyses of African conflict situations have been published under the series.

African Cities Working Group

In May 2022, the EUISS has launched an African Cities Working Group, in cooperation with the African Centre for Economic Transformation, the OECD, the European Commission, the European External Action Service, and the International Growth Centre. The initiative brings together key stakeholders, working towards concrete proposals to address structural challenges connected with urbanisation, in three areas: environment; economic resilience; and fragility, conflict and violence.

Imagine Africa Series – Policy Briefs

The Imagine Africa Series provided a platform for African experts to discuss potential futures for Africa using strategic foresight scenarios on selected priority areas for Africa-Europe cooperation. Five policy briefs were published under the series and dedicated to the broad theme of “people-centred development”. The full list is available here.

African Futures Task Force

From November 2019 to December 2020, the EUISS ran an African Futures Task Force. Its main objective was to explore trends affecting the future of Africa in the next ten years, emphasising challenges and opportunities for policymaking. The task force resulted in the publication of the Chaillot Paper "African Futures 2030: free trade, peace and prosperity" on 9 March 2021.

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    19April 2017
    Unrest in Ethiopia: plus ça change?
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    After tensions between the government and citizens reached a boiling point in November 2015, a vicious cycle of protests and repression subsequently took hold for over a year. What, if anything, has the ruling party learned?

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    22March 2017
    Organised crime and fragile states: African variations
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    Little effort has been made so far to acquire a comprehensive understanding of transnational organised crime, its political economy and its ambivalent, non-linear relationship with political violence and system stability. This Brief takes a theoretical approach to explain the phenomenon in Africa.

  • 01March 2017
    Africa's international relations: between foreign actors and external projection

    The first expert workshop of the African Futures project was organised in cooperation with the Egmont Institute on 1 March 2017 in Brussels. The workshop discussed Africa’s international relations: Africa’s evolving relations with external partners and the nature of Africa's influence in the world.

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    02December 2016
    Beyond the ICC exit crisis
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    The recent decisions by Burundi, the Gambia and South Africa to withdraw from the International Criminal Court (ICC) have prompted worries that more countries may leave the Hague-based tribunal which investigates war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity. But while it is clear that the ICC is facing important challenges to its credibility and legitimacy, the recent exits might not trigger a domino effect.

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    02December 2016
    Africa uprising? The protests, the drivers, the outcomes
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    The number of popular protests in Africa has increased significantly since the mid-2000s, reaching its peak in recent years. To what extent can this surge challenge sitting governments or even be the harbinger of broader social and political change on the continent?

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    24November 2016
    The EU-China-Africa triangle
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    The EU and China have long sought to cooperate in and with Africa. Illegal migration to Europe, China’s growing commercial investments and terrorists looking for safe haven in Africa bind European, Chinese and African interests. The proliferation of these challenges beyond African borders is now driving the three parties closer together.

  • 21November 2016
    African futures – Project launch meeting

    On 21 November, the EUISS held the first meeting of the ‘African Futures’ project at its Liaison Office in Brussels.

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    29July 2016
    Military coups: a very short introduction
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    This Brief seeks to explain why (and when) coups happen. What conditions are needed to persuade the military to attempt to topple a government? And what elements increase the likelihood of success or failure?

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    16June 2016
    Great Lakes – weak democracies?
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    Presidential attempts to extend term limits in the Great Lakes region have resuscitated a debate over their impact on security. But beyond these presidential predicaments, questions have been raised over the erosion of democratic accountability across the region.

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    16June 2016
    Central African Republic: post-transitional realities
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    The restoration of a democratically-elected political authority in the Central African Republic (CAR) three years after the outbreak of its latest conflict episode is a positive breakthrough, but no panacea. Unable to shoulder the burden of conflict on its own, it will require sustained international support for years to come.

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    27June 2012
    Engaging African diasporas for peace: cornerstones for an emerging EU agenda
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    Over the last decade, researchers and policy-makers have paid increasing attention to diasporas. This Occasional Paper explores the untapped potential of African diaspora communities in promoting peace in their homelands and assesses how the European Union can engage with these non-state actors in the field of peace and security.

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    15May 2012
    L'investissement de l'UE dans la sécurité collective en Afrique centrale : un pari risqué
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    L’interrogation à laquelle tente de répondre la présente étude est de savoir si l’investissement de l’UE dans la CEEAC en tant qu’acteur de sécurité collective en Afrique centrale se justifie. Le constat, il faut le regretter, n’est pas encourageant. Intervenant sur un milieu il est vrai peu porteur, l’UE ne s’est pas donné les moyens des fins affichées.

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    20December 2011
    Even without war, much to worry about in post-election Congo
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    Following the elections in the DRC, it is likely that a small circle of ruling elites will tighten their grip on the state. Space for political opposition and civil society will shrink. To prevent this, the trust of the Congolese people in the political process must, at least partly, be restored.

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    15November 2011
    How could the Arab democratic wave change Africa?
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    The Arab democratic wave has not had an effect on Africa as much as some had hoped. But the situation on the other side of the Sahara is more nuanced. Here, the author explores several scenarios where sub-Saharan African nations may face crucial turning points.

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    27July 2011
    The EU and China’s engagement in Africa: the dilemma of socialisation
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    In Africa, the aid and security policies of the EU and China are often contradictory. Rather than overemphasise the norms debate, the author argues, the EU and China should focus on seeking common ground and developing a pragmatic approach.

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    06June 2011
    Humanitaire et conflits armés. Les défis contemporains
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    Ce Report est le fruit d’une première coopération entre le Comité international de la Croix-Rouge et l’IESUE visant à développer des échanges mutuellement bénéfiques entre le CICR, l’Union européenne et d’autres acteurs concernés par des problématiques humanitaires.

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    04April 2011
    CSDP Newsletter No.11
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    The CSDP newsletter aims to give its readers an insight into ongoing work on CSDP development and on crisis management missions. In this current issue, articles on security sector, reform gender activities, Somalia, the EDA and the EU and NATO's future.

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    17February 2011
    What next for South Sudan?
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    Predictions of widespread violence during the South Sudanese independence referendum proved wide of the mark. With adequate diplomatic and financial support, the south could secede peacefully. But numerous challenges remain and the international community should keep Sudan high on its agenda.

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    07December 2010
    Quelle politique pour l'UE au Zimbabwe aujourd'hui?
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    Le 13 février 2009 a marqué un tournant majeur dans l’histoire contemporaine du Zimbabwe, avec l’intronisation d’un Gouvernement d’Union nationale. Dans cet Occasional Paper, l'auteur s’efforce de décrypter la politique actuelle de l’UE au regard de ce développement tout en examinant les modalités du réengagement politique et économique de l’UE au Zimbabwe.

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    30November 2010
    L'UE et l'Afrique : les défis de la cohérence
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    L’Afrique, depuis une décennie, est sur la voie d’une « structuration stratégique » dans tous les domaines des affaires internationales. Mais si l’Afrique change vite, les institutions changent lentement. Dans ce Cahier de Chaillot, l'auteur examine comment l’UE relève les défis régionaux avec cohérence et à long terme.

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