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Eastern neighbours & Russia

The eastern neighbourhood is of strategic importance to the EU: although the Union’s relations with the states of the region vary significantly, the EU and its eastern neighbours maintain high levels of interdependence in several different spheres: from trade and energy flows to the joint management of security challenges and migration.

The EU has long developed its policies in the region and its relations with Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan along the European Neighbourhood Policy and the Eastern Partnership.

Association Agreements containing provisions on the establishment of deep and comprehensive free trade areas, form the cornerstones of EU engagement. Such agreements have been signed and are implemented by Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia.

Russia’s war on Ukraine prompted this ‘Association Trio’ to formally apply for EU membership: Ukraine and Moldova were granted candidate status in June 2022, while Georgia was recognised as a potential candidate. Relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan are also advancing but outside of the enlargement track.

Beyond the Eastern Partnership, Russia remains the EU’s biggest geographical neighbour. Until 2022, the EU and Russia were bound by a complex network of political, economic and people-to-people contacts. Yet, Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has halted many aspects of the EU’s relationship with Moscow: European attempts at curtailing Russian aggression on Ukraine have come to dominate a relationship which once was mostly built on fostering trade and energy cooperation.

 Eastern neighbours & Russia 2.0

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has reshaped demographics, geoeconomics, and geopolitics in the Eastern Partnership states, prompting the EU to take radical decisions in its engagement with its eastern neighbourhood, made up of Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Whereas prior engagement focused on trade, energy, migration, and security, the EU has started channelling funds to supply Ukraine with heavy weapons, while it has extended the enlargement process along its eastern border.

Over the coming years, the newfound momentum of engagement needs to be sustained and backed up with resources. Ultimately, the EU’s success in the neighbourhood will largely depend on its actions in the security realm – not only in Ukraine, but also in Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, given that Russia’s war has altered the status quo of protracted conflicts in said countries. Among other factors, support for refugees, easing of remaining trade barriers, improving regional connectivity, and progress in the enlargement process will co-determine the EU’s success in the neighbourhood in the period to come.

Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has halted many aspects of the EU’s relationship with Moscow: EU attempts at curtailing Russian aggression on Ukraine – through sanctions on Russia and weapons deliveries to Ukraine – has come to dominate a relationship which once was mostly built on fostering trade and energy cooperation, a security dialogue, and visa liberalisation.

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  • Download Brief
    06February 2023
    As the conflict in Ukraine continues to unfold, Türkiye is trying to perform a delicate balancing act. This Brief explores how Türkiye seeks to maintain equidistance from Russia and the West to assert its strategic autonomy while exploiting Russia’s current weakness to project influence in the Black Sea region and beyond.
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    19October 2022
    Brussels put together an exceptionally hard sanctions package in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This Brief evaluates their effectiveness and concludes that while sanctions are taking time to produce effects, their impact will be long-lasting and hard to reverse.
  • Download Brief
    06October 2022
    As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its eighth month, this Brief explores the impact of the war on the countries of the eastern neighbourhood, where it has had significant economic, demographic and geopolitical repercussions.
  • Download Brief
    14March 2022
    With Belarus now playing an active enabling role in the Russian military invasion of Ukraine, this Brief analyses how military cooperation between Russia and Belarus has deepened since 2020.
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    26November 2021
    Russia has scaled up its presence in Latin America over the last decade. This Brief analyses Russia’s posture in the region and its wider implications for Europe.
  • Download Brief
    22September 2021
    As global warming and the need for a decarbonisation strategy have risen to the top of the EU’s agenda, fighting climate change has emerged as one of the prospective areas for cooperation with Russia. This Brief shows that despite the detrimental effects of climate change in Russia, Moscow continues to perceive the issue primarily in terms of power relations and money.
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    24June 2021
    The Russian-Turkish partnership

     This Chaillot Paper explores the factors that cement Russian-Turkish ties despite clashing interests and increasingly contentious regional agendas.

  • Download Brief
    08April 2021
    This Brief analyses to what extent the Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement of November 2020 has created the basis for a lasting settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh. The deployment of Russian troops in the region may lead to a new ‘freezing’ of the conflict resolution process, instead of politically resolving the conflict itself.
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    01February 2021
    This Brief explores Armenia’s Russia policy after the 2018 Velvet Revolution in the light of the country’s defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, resulting in a larger regional role for Turkey, which has exacerbated Armenia’s security dilemma.
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    29January 2021
    Foresight plays an important role in defence planning and is an essential part of Russian military science. Despite some similarities to Western perspectives, there are distinctive aspects to Russian foresight thinking, which places particular emphasis on geopolitical and geoeconomic developments.

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