Russia and Eastern Neighbours

Deeper EU-Ukraine defence industrial integration can strengthen Ukraine's ability to resist Russia while bolstering Europe's defences. Combining Kyiv's innovation and expertise with European capital, tech and demand can build a stronger shared defence industrial base.

Russia's shadow fleet is changing in response to mounting European pressure. The EU must respond by widening its legal options, expanding efforts to target those involved in illicit activities, and more actively pursuing the seizure of vessels and cargoes.

Europe should urgently strengthen Ukraine’s air defences as Russia intensifies its long-range strikes. Increasing supplies, expanding European and Ukrainian production, and developing new capabilities would help counter ballistic missiles and strengthen Europe’s own defences.

How can the EU better empower Ukraine? This collection of expert analyses offers practical policy proposals, arguing that that stronger EU support for Ukraine’s defence, recovery and integration is key to Europe's long-term security.

As Russia tightens its grip on Belarus, the country is becoming a growing source of military pressure and intimidation against Europe. The EU must respond with a balanced strategy of pressure, conditional incentives and support for democratic forces.

Nikol Pashinyan’s election victory keeps Armenia on a pro-European course despite intense Russian pressure. Yet his failure to secure a constitutional majority leaves the peace process with Azerbaijan vulnerable, underscoring the need for sustained EU engagement.

Russia faces rising economic and military strain. The Kremlin may muddle through, or opt to escalate if it senses time is running out. Europe should not be deterred and must strengthen preparedness and support for Ukraine to contain Russia effectively.

As Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine enters its fifth year, the EU should tighten the screws and align its policy instruments within a coherent strategy that contributes to a just and lasting peace.

The Global Risks to the EU survey highlights the most acute security risks facing the EU in 2026, as assessed by European experts. A hybrid attack on EU critical infrastructure tops the risk list, alongside threats from Russia and a US withdrawal of security guarantees.