The EU-Western Balkans Summit highlighted renewed momentum for enlargement. Yet ongoing political crises, governance shortcomings and regional tensions show that successful integration will depend as much on domestic reforms and stability as on geopolitical ambition.
Nikol Pashinyan’s election victory keeps Armenia on a pro-European course despite intense Russian pressure. Yet his failure to secure a constitutional majority leaves the peace process with Azerbaijan vulnerable, underscoring the need for sustained EU engagement.
China’s critical raw material export squeeze has proven a powerful geo-economic weapon. Initially retaliation against US tariffs and tech restrictions, Beijing’s leverage now advances its far greater ambitions.
Europe’s growing deep-strike gap threatens NATO deterrence as US support becomes less certain. European states must move faster to develop, produce and procure affordable deep-strike systems while strengthening the intelligence and targeting networks that make them effective.
The NATO summit in Ankara in early July threatens to revolve around one question once again: how do we keep Donald Trump on board? Europe would be much better off focusing on its own plan for military deterrence.
