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Briefs

Raising awareness of both existing and emerging foreign and security policy challenges facing the European Union, EUISS Briefs provide key information in a concise, focused format.

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    08April 2021
    This Brief analyses to what extent the Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement of November 2020 has created the basis for a lasting settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh. The deployment of Russian troops in the region may lead to a new ‘freezing’ of the conflict resolution process, instead of politically resolving the conflict itself.
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    31March 2021
    The third in our series of Briefs on this theme looks at the role of foresight in policymaking in the United States.
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    30March 2021
    This Brief examines the oil-conflict nexus and analyses the effects of the recent pandemic-induced oil price shock on three vulnerable, conflict-affected countries.
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    11March 2021
    The second in our series of Foresight Briefs shows how the function of strategic foresight has not been conceptualised in China to the same degree as in the West. However, the notions of disruptive ‘black swan’ and ‘grey rhino’ events have gained currency among Chinese analysts in recent years.
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    19February 2021
    The use of digital technologies in intra-state conflicts has become more frequent. This Brief sheds light on some of the risks associated with their use and how these can negatively impact mediation or negotiation efforts in civil conflicts, and examines how peacemakers might address them.
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    09February 2021
    Early warning systems (EWS) are at the heart of conflict prevention strategies. This Brief argues that the gap between early warning and early action persists because of challenges in transforming early warning policy recommendations into early response.
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    01February 2021
    This Brief explores Armenia’s Russia policy after the 2018 Velvet Revolution in the light of the country’s defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, resulting in a larger regional role for Turkey, which has exacerbated Armenia’s security dilemma.
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    29January 2021
    Foresight plays an important role in defence planning and is an essential part of Russian military science. Despite some similarities to Western perspectives, there are distinctive aspects to Russian foresight thinking, which places particular emphasis on geopolitical and geoeconomic developments.
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    17December 2020
    The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic has heightened fears about the EU’s trade, resources and technology dependencies. This Brief outlines the challenges facing the Union’s supply security and explores how any EU trade diversification strategy needs to tackle three core risk factors: state fragility, economic coercion and climate change.
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    04December 2020
    Despite routine declarations that connect Sahelian terrorism to climatic and environmental factors, available scientific evidence does not allow us to conclude whether (and what) climatic factors impact (and how) conflict variability and terrorism. This Brief explores why.

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