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Florence Gaub
Florence Gaub was Senior Analyst then Deputy Director of the EU Institute of Security Studies for 9 years, until May 2022. Her research career took her from conflict and war in the Middle East and North Africa to institutional change and geopolitical shifts. In 2019, she penned the 'Global Trends to 2030' report for the European Union's foresight network. In her work, she focused on long-term trends, challenges and opportunities, and how to future proof societies for them.
Books
The Cauldron: NATO’s Libya Operation
(Hurst: London, 2018)
Guardians of the Arab State: why militaries intervene in politics
(Hurst: London, 2017)
Military Integration after Civil Wars
(London: Routledge, 2010)
The images of war in French literature
Duisburg: WiKu-Verlag Verlag für Wissenschaft und Kultur, 2008 (in German)
Peer-reviewed articles
What’s in A Name? Mena Flag Carriers as Instruments of Soft Power
In S. Colombo, E. Soler (Eds.), Infrastructures and Power in the Middle East and North Africa, Euromesco Joint Policy Study, No. 17, September 2020
Der Nahe und Mittlere Osten und Nordafrika 2020
In Sicherheitspolitische Jahresvorschau 2020, Bundesministerium fuer Landesverteidigung, Vienna 2020 (in German)
Are Middle Eastern Militaries Agents of Stability or Instability?
in Seven Pillars: What Really causes Instability in the Middle East?, Michael Rubin & Brian Katulis (eds.), The AEI Press, Washington DC, December 2019, pp.83-103
Like father like son: Libyan civil-military relations before and after 2011
Mediterranean Quarterly, October 2017
Counterterrorism cooperation with the Southern Neighbourhood
European Parliament Report, January 2017
An Unhappy Marriage: civil-military relations in Iraq
Carnegie Beirut, January 2016
ISIS as a cult
Survival, January 2016
Arab futures: three scenarios for 2025
Confluences Méditerranée, 2015/2 (N° 93)
Middle Eastern multipolarity in movement
Orient, IV/ 2015
Arab Spring and Arab armies: a new framework for analysis
In Les armees dans les revolutions arabes : Positions et roles, Said Haddad (ed.), Presse Universitaires de Rennes: Rennes, 2015, (in French)
The Middle East in German Social-Democratic Foreign Policy
In Sozial – friedlich – global? Aussen- und Sicherheitspolitik heute, Ursula Bitzegeio, Rana Deep Islam, Robert Schuette, Lars Winterberg (eds.), Berlin: LIT Verlag, 2014, pp.195-217 (in German)
Merging Militaries: The Lebanese Case
In New Armies from Old: Merging Competing Military Forces after Civil Wars, Roy Licklider (ed.), Washington DC: Georgetown University Press, 2014, pp.69-84
The EU and Libya: The Art of the Possible
International Spectator, September 2014
NATO and the Maghreb : Educational cooperation programmes
In L’OTAN et le Maghreb, Brahim Saidy (ed.), Paris: Editions L’Harmattan,2014 (in French)
A Libyan Recipe for Disaster
Survival, vol.56, No.1, February/March 2014
The Three Identities of Hezbollah
European Parliament Report, July 2013
The Odd Couple: NATO and the GCC
In The Uneasy Balance: Potential and Challenges of the West's Relations with the Gulf States, Riccardo Alcaro (ed.), Edizioni Nuova Cultura: IAI Research Papers, Rome 2013, pp.113-126
The Libyan armed forces between coup-proofing and repression
Journal for Strategic Studies, March 2013
The Arab Spring: Regional consequences and strategic implications
Revue Défense Nationale, 2013
Qaddafi’s dream come true: Libya today
Politique Etrangère, September 2012 (in French)
Understanding Instability: Lessons from the ‘Arab Spring’
Arts & Humanities Research Council, December 2012
NATO as a military reform initiator: the case of Bosnia-Herzegovina
In European Security Handbook, 2008, ed. Alexander Siedschlag Baden-Baden, 2008
Multi-ethnic armies and the aftermath of civil war: Lessons learned from Lebanon
Defence Studies, Vol. 7, No.1, 2007
NATO Defence College publications
Six Strategic Lessons from NATO’s Libya Operation
NDC Research Report, March 2012
Libya in Limbo: How to Fill the Security Vacuum
NDC Research Report, September 2011
Libya: Avoiding State Failure
NDC Research Report, September 2011
Building a new military? NATO Training Mission Iraq
NDC Research Paper No. 67, March 2011
NATO: Peacekeeping in the Holy Land?
NDC Research Paper, No. 57, March 2010
Blinded by Culture: (Mis)understanding Arab Strategy
NDC Forum Paper, No.18, July 2010
Culture Matters: Improving Security Force Assistance to Iraq and Afghanistan
NDC Forum Paper, No.14, ‘Complex Operations: NATO at war and on the margins of war’, July 2010
Other publications
ESPAS Global Trends Mid-Term Report: The Global Future - An Update
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS), November 2021
Thinking MENA Futures: The Next Five Years and Beyond
Middle East Institute, October 2021
The EU in Action I: The Middle East and North Africa
Internationale Politik, January 2021
Why Does Foresight Matter in a Time of Crisis?
Institut Montaigne, November 2020
L’anticipation, notamment celle du coronavirus, est une affaire de mentalité
Le Monde, May 2020 (in French)
Eat, Pray, Fight: One Man’s Journey in and out of Al-Qaeda
Book review, December 2018
Global Trends to 2030: Shaping the Future in a Fast-Changing World
Think Pieces, ESPAS, November 2018
Brot, Freiheit und Gerechtigkeit
Internationale Politik, April 2018 (in German)
Both Ends of the Spectrum: GCC-Maghreb Relations
AGSIW, December 2017
Galvanized into action: Arab Armies since 2011
ISPI, December 2017
The Future of Strategic Rivalry and War
Shaping the Future of Geopolitics, ESPAS, November 2017
Libyen: Warum die NATO nicht an allem Schuld ist
SIRIUS, September 2017
Postscript: The Lebanese Armed Forces in Regional Perspective
In Are Knudsen & Tine Gade (eds.), Civil-Military Relations in Lebanon (London: Palgrave, 2017)
The Syrian Military: The Day After
Euromesco, The Future of Syria Project (Military, Security and Counter-Terrorism), October 2016
An Arab NATO in the Making?
Strategic Studies Institute, September 2016
Scientology für Islamisten: Was den „Islamischen Staat“ zur Sekte macht
Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft, February 2016
Multiethnicity and the Military: Colliding Concepts?
Arab Reform Initiative, February 2016
Three scenarios for the Arab region
Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte, February 2016 (in German)
Judy Asks: Should the West Work With Russia on Syria?
Carnegie Europe, September 2015
A matter of age: how the IS surfs the web
Weissbuchseite der Bundeswehr, July 2015 (in German)
The future of change in the Arab world
Al-Jazeera Center for Studies, June 2015
Why Arab States are Bad at Counterinsurgency
Lawfare blog, June 2015
The Gulf Moment: Arab relations since 2011
Strategic Studies Institute, May 2015
The three options of the Arab world
Revue Defense Nationale, April 2015 (in French)
The League of Arab States
Internationale Politik, November 2014 (in German)
The rise of Arab Air power
ISN, November 2014
The Middle East of tomorrow: Back to the future?
Revue Defense Nationale, 2014 (in French)
After the Spring: Reforming Arab Armies
Strategic Studies Institute, September 2014
Principles of Arab Politics
Internationale Politik, 5/2014 (in German)
The Arab Political Systems beyond 2014 - Where do we go from here?
Al-Jazeera Center for Studies, July 2014
Syria’s military: Last man standing?
Carnegie Europe, July 2014
The Gas Crisis in Europe and the Role of Qatar
Al-Jazeera Center for Studies, May 2014
Libya: Somalia on the Mediterranean?
Rivista marina, April 2014 (in Italian)
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Libya: Reviewing Operation Unified Protector
Strategic Studies Institute, June 2013
NATO’s new clothes: Syria and the fairy-tale of a just world
Cicero, July 2012 (in German)
Against All Odds: NATO & the MENA region
Strategic Studies Institute, July 2012
The Politics of Fashion: Identity and International Relations
Internationale Politik, June 2012 (in German)
Six Strategic Lessons of Unified Protector
Revue Défense Nationale, June 2012 (in French)
The difficult rebirth of Iraq
Internationale Politik, April 2012 (in German)
Predicting the Arab Spring: what we got wrong
Jane’s Defense Weekly, February 2012
Iraq: Which Age is Dawning?
ISPI Report, September 2011
The return of the Jedi: About the political role of Arab armies
Internationale Politik, May 2011 (in German)
The Southern Duck wants to Lie Down! How intercultural communication can affect strategic communication
Internationale Politik, September 2010 (in German)
Rebuilding Armed Forces: Learning from Iraq and Lebanon
Strategic Studies Institute, December 2010