America is failing in Iraq. It has disintegrated into a civil war and the domestic situation in the country is constantly deteriorating. The American public has turned against the war and Bush's popularity has declined sharply. Iraq proved a major factor in the Congressional elections on 7 November 2006, which returned a Democratic majority in both Houses.
For the first time since 1994 the House of Representatives has been taken by the Democrats and a slim Democrat majority has emerged in the Senate. The nation’s dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq, alongside the corruption scandals surrounding the GOP, proved to be the most important factors swinging the pendulum of American politics in favour of the Democrats.
A la veille des élections législatives, les États-Unis ressemblent à ce Gulliver empêtré que décrivait Stanley Hoffman après leur échec au Vietnam. À trois niveaux au moins, on touche aux limites de la puissance américaine. Sur le plan militaire, parce que l'échec est possible en Irak. Les 130 000 hommes déployés ne parviennent pas à stabiliser un pays qui plombe la liberté d'action de l'Amérique, alors que les 500 milliards de dollars (soit environ 400 milliards d'euros) de budget militaire (près de 60 % des dépenses mondiales) ne parviennent ni à vaincre le terrorisme ni à rendre le monde meilleur et plus sûr.
The approaching mid-term elections (due to take place on 7 November) to both Houses of the Congress and a number of state governorships may deliver a considerable change in the US and have an impact on its foreign policy.
(a modified version of this analysis was published by European Voice, 23-29 March 2006)
In his now famous essay 'Power and Paradise' Robert Kagan forcefully argued that 'America was from Mars and Europe from Venus' and as a consequence of this America and Europe were diverging and going down different paths.
The State of the Union Address is considered to be the most important annual speech in the US and the major occasion for the President to outline his priorities and influence the agenda of the Congress. In the past, George W. Bush used this occasion to announce radical policy changes such as his 2002 speech when the President used the famous reference to the 'axis of evil'.
The broader Middle Eastern region has become the central focus of U.S.-European diplomatic relations. Talks between senior European policymakers and U.S. officials are now often dominated by issues that arise from the threats to peace and stability that emanate from this troubled region. The Middle East looms equally large in public opinion on both sides of the Atlantic.
The rapid modernisation of the People's Liberation Army, Beijing's increasingly threatening stance vis-à-vis Taiwan and its demand for energy are the main factors driving America's preoccupation with China. All sectors of opinion in the US criticised the EU's declared intention to lift its embargo on arms exports to China. This policy was misunderstood and its implications exaggerated.
Since the re-election of President Bush, American foreign policy has undergone a subtle but noticeable and significant transformation. The hawkish attitude demonstrated by Bush during his first term and his cavalier approach towards alliance-building have been replaced by a toning down of the previously aggressive rhetoric and an attempt to reach out to allies and, in particular, to the EU.
The failure of the EU constitution in the referendums in France and the Netherlands has met with three types of responses in America: disappointment, satisfaction and ignorance. Most of the Americans who care about European affairs have not welcomed the failure.