The election of Hassan Rouhani has confirmed the vibrancy and necessity of the electoral process in Iran. But if the new president-elect is to now embark on a course correction of Iranian politics, he will have to contend with formidable and complicated elements within the state structure: the security establishment, a parliament dominated by various conservative factions, and the supreme leader himself.
This brief explores the presidential campaign underway in Iran, examining the chosen candidates and the internal power struggles of a divided country and highlighting how the tight control of the electoral process is posing a serious challenge the regime’s own commitment to the notion of popular sovereignty.
In this special edition newsletter marking the 10 year anniversary of the EUISS becoming an EU agency, Álvaro de Vasconcelos offers his insight as to why the EU needs to think strategically, James Elles MEP writes of the importance of the ESPAS project, and individual contributions from all EUISS Research Fellows identify key strategic trends in their respective areas of expertise.
Seldom has it been as justified to be pessimistic about developments between the United States, Israel, and Iran. This dysfunctional state of affairs is getting so out of hand that the danger of war is no longer just a remote possibility but instead looms large on the horizon. David Ignatius reported on Feb. 2 in Washington Post that "[Secretary of Defense Leon] Panetta believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May, or June," though he does not believe that the final decision has been taken yet.
Iran is in the throes of a transition where its fundamental tenets are being called into question. This paper provides an in-depth assessment of Iranian state and society since the 1979 revolution, focusing particularly on the social and political turmoil of the past five years.
In this quarter's issue, Azzam Mahjoub pores over Tunisia's democratic transition, Álvaro de Vasconcelos deconstructs Huntington's 'clash of civilisations' theory, while Rouzbeh Parsi considers the revolutionary tremors in the Persian Gulf.
The West needs to return to the drawing board over its dysfunctional relationship with Iran. The author argues that there is no convincing evidence of a link between the negative impact of sanctions on the Iranian economy and an inducement of popular discontent and a change in nuclear policy.
This multi-author publication presents EUISS forecasts and perspectives on the European Union’s foreign policy strategy in the post-Lisbon Treaty context. The Report seeks to define what should be the basic guiding principles of EU foreign policy and how they should be applied in a set of priority areas.
Rouzbeh Parsi was quoted in an article about the Iranian nuclear ambitions: 'Given that the P5+1 includes the very same five permanent members of the UN Security Council, a "more imaginative, less rigid handling" of its resolutions would be "helpful."'