The transatlantic relationship has been the cornerstone of the EU’s foreign and security policy. However, in a context where some in the US are looking inwards and questioning the values and institutions their country has built internationally, expectations on Europe have increased. The rise of new global power centres has added a new dimension to transatlantic debates, and both sides of the Atlantic must redefine the relationship to preserve security and prosperity, as well as maintain influence in an emerging international system where the 'West’– may no longer be dominant.
The EU has also cultivated and institutionalised relations with Canada and many countries of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Recent changes in the international context have made the EU a more attractive partner to LAC countries, which are facing economic slowdowns, rising criminality and problems related to the rule of law. However, the increasing contestation of democratic values (which used to bind LAC countries together) has put regional institutions under pressure and strained relations with the EU.
What are the biggest risks to the EU in 2025? We asked close to 400 experts to rank the likelihood and expected impact of 30 predefined risks affecting EU interests. Experts highlighted the following top risks: a bad ceasefire deal in Ukraine, US abandonment, hybrid attacks, and...
If the EU does not engage proactively with Washington, the new Trump 2.0 administration may proceed without taking the bloc’s interests into account. Intent on countering Chinese technological and industrial dominance, Trump 2.0 may push Europeans towards a degree of decoupling...
The US’s three main adversaries– Russia, China and Iran – actively sought to influence the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. This Brief examines the various tactics that they employed, arguing that the EU can learn from innovative strategies put in place by the US...
Tariffs under Trump 2.0 are likely to target Europe’s exports to the US. While importing more American gas may enhance Europe’s leverage in tariff negotiations and help to offset Russian supplies , this comes at a sharp cost to European competitiveness. The EU should focus on...
The EU is concerned that it could soon become overly reliant on legacy chips from China. This challenge poses a threat to the EU’s economic security, as China could exploit this dependency to exert influence. The infographics displayed here map Chinese legacy chip capacity as...
In the last decade, underinvestment and a lack of attention from the EU and the US has enabled states like China and Russia to expand their foothold in Latin America. Further neglect of the region could deprive the EU of key strategic partners. In the wake of Donald Trump’s re...
Shifts in US foreign policy under Trump 2.0 will inevitably affect EU-Africa relations. In light of the anticipated changes under the incoming White House administration, the EU and its African counterparts should strive to develop more coordinated common policies.
EU leaders would be wise to work with Trump 2.0 on reindustrialisation, whatever differences they may have on Ukraine and bilateral trade. The concentration of fighting capability and industrial capacity in the anti-Western axis is the major threat to Europe’s security.
Under Trump, the US commitment to European defence and NATO is under question. The EU should work to ensure the American presence endures while also taking up a greater burden of the continent's defence in cooperation with the alliance. We suggest where to start.
The EU has a chance to exert influence over the incoming Trump 2 administration if it moves swiftly to make a ‘China pitch’ focused on ‘three Ts’: trade, tech and Taiwan.
