Publications

  • Digital technologies and civil conflicts

    The use of digital technologies in intra-state conflicts has become more frequent. This Brief sheds light on some of the risks associated with their use and how these can negatively impact mediation or negotiation efforts in civil conflicts, and examines how peacemakers might...

    Briefs
    By: Camino Kavanagh

  • Pivoting to African conflict prevention?

    Early warning systems (EWS) are at the heart of conflict prevention strategies. This Brief argues that the gap between early warning and early action persists because of challenges in transforming early warning policy recommendations into early response.

    Briefs
    By: Amandine Gnanguenon

  • Appeasement and autonomy

    This Brief explores Armenia’s Russia policy after the 2018 Velvet Revolution in the light of the country’s defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, resulting in a larger regional role for Turkey, which has exacerbated Armenia’s security dilemma.

    Briefs
    By: Narek Sukiasyan

  • How Russia does foresight

    Foresight plays an important role in defence planning and is an essential part of Russian military science. Despite some similarities to Western perspectives, there are distinctive aspects to Russian foresight thinking, which places particular emphasis on geopolitical and...

    Briefs
    By: Andrew Monaghan

  • What if...not? The cost of inaction

    The 12 scenarios presented in this Chaillot Paper draw attention to the cost of inaction in a variety of areas, ranging from Russia to Africa, from cyberspace to environmental matters.

    Chaillot Papers
    Edited by: Florence Gaub

  • Conflicts to come

    The volume presents 15 fictionalised scenarios that imagine how future conflicts might occur. These scenarios contribute to, and at times challenge, the existing body of assumptions concerning the genesis of conflict, its likelihood and how it might play out.

    Chaillot Papers
    Edited by: Florence Gaub

  • How Covid-19 changed the future

    This Chaillot Paper examines two dimensions: it assesses the geopolitical trends the pandemic is perceived as having accelerated, and the scope for innovation and far-reaching change induced by the crisis.

    Chaillot Papers
    By: Florence Gaub, Lotje Boswinkel

  • Sovereignty over supply?

    The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic has heightened fears about the EU’s trade, resources and technology dependencies. This Brief outlines the challenges facing the Union’s supply security and explores how any EU trade diversification strategy needs to tackle three core risk...

    Briefs
    By: Daniel Fiott, Vassilis Theodosopoulos
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    The European space sector as an enabler of EU strategic autonomy

    This study looks at the ways in which the European space sector can be an enabler of EU strategic autonomy. It asks how should the EU understand space and strategic autonomy, what has the EU achieved in space and how this has contributed to the EU’s strategic autonomy and what...

    Analysis
    By: Daniel Fiott