President Trump’s first 100 days were an assault on international norms across multiple domains. The damage to US credibility, financial markets and the international rules-based order is still being felt. Consequently, stability, reliability and consistency have become valuable assets on the global stage. Fortunately, these are the EU’s strong points; it should cherish them.
In energy and climate, the EU’s legal and regulatory frameworks provide stability and reliability in geopolitics, industry and finance. Moreover, these frameworks are beginning to deliver on their original purpose – addressing the intertwined challenges of energy security and climate change. The danger is that, just as progress becomes visible, Trump steps up the pressure from the outside, feeding into short-term anxieties among industries and politicians within the EU to prompt a loss of nerve and panic. There should be no backtracking on climate ambition, nor any weakening or delay in the implementation of regulations. Instead, the EU should maintain its predictable, methodical and reliable approach – refining and improving existing legislation in line with its energy and economic security goals and its commitment to fighting climate change.
The message for EU policymakers is simple: keep calm and carry on.
Small pain, big gain
The EU has embarked on an energy transition that will result in considerable reshoring of energy production into the EU. Meanwhile the Trump administration seems intent on dragging Europe into new fossil fuel dependencies. The White House has advanced proposals for €350 billion in US fossil fuel purchases as a condition for tariff relief and has strongly advocated a rollback of the clean energy boom – most recently at the IEA summit on energy security. Yet a transition away from fossil fuels remains the EU’s best hope in building sustainable energy security with positive knock-on effects for European industry and its economy. In 2022, to stave off disaster following Russia’s weaponisation of energy supplies, the EU spent €397 billion in fossil fuel subsidies and energy support while the bill from suppliers reached €604 billion. Persistently high energy prices today are a consequence of yesterday’s dependencies. This is not the time to reverse course, even though the transition proves challenging at times.
In fact, EU energy policy efforts in the past few years are beginning to bear fruit. Southern European countries who have experienced a surge in solar generation are now seeing electricity prices similar to and even lower than those in the US. As a result, the industrial picture in these countries is much rosier, while countries where imported fossil fuels still dominate continue to face persistently high energy prices and the risk of deindustrialisation. Even more precious has been the derisking of the energy system, with Russia now playing a much-reduced role in the EU’s energy system. There is still some way to go, but this is exactly the moment when the payoff is becoming clear for those who have taken energy transition seriously.
This is not the time to reverse course, even though the transition proves challenging at times.
The EU should play to its strengths and not dance to the tune of fossil fuel lobbyists and short-term disrupters. The EU is a stable, rules-based entity which looks to the long term, not just the next tweet. Its slow but steady pace is proving to be a strength in times of chaos and uncertainty. While undoubtedly it needs to move fast on some things (such as defence) it can afford to let other parts of its policymaking mature and develop. All major files on energy and climate were opened in the last legislative session, so remain timely and relevant. The Green Deal is now being put through the wind tunnel, where refinements are accelerating the transition process. This is no time to panic, which would only serve to undermine the EU’s credibility at a moment when it holds extensive political capital on the global stage. As partner countries ‘line up’ to sign trade deals with it, the EU must demonstrate that it is a long-term rules-based system, not one that reverses course every couple of years. Efforts at opaque simplification or attempts to placate the US president with sporadic deregulation, including proposals to alter the methane regulation under pressure from US LNG exporters, undermine the image of the EU as a credible, rules-based actor. Instead, the EU should play to its strengths: long-term, carefully considered policymaking.
Cold water on a hot fire
The world is almost literally on fire – or at the very least sweltering under a relentless heat. March 2025 was the second-hottest on record. Temperatures in Europe were 2.41°C over the average.
On climate policy, the EU has shown itself to be a leader in global climate ambition – despite being directly responsible for just 6% of global emissions in 2023. There is no contradiction in pursuing this goal: it is both commendable and in the EU’s own strategic interest. Unchecked climate change will ruin lives, wipe out countries and decimate economies. There is nothing negative in wanting to combat it. A large majority of European citizens agree and continue to want the EU to act. This view is echoed across the plural South where the effects of climate change are often felt most acutely.
This is not the time to yield to shifting political winds in Washington DC. Instead, the EU has a unique opportunity to show even greater soft-power leadership – standing in contrast to Chinese transactionalism and US isolationism. The EU’s climate goals remain a key signal to global partners and require little change from those already in place. Watering down its ambition would only prove to many that the EU is not serious even while it urges others to act. Credibility, trust and clarity are a strong currency in this geopolitical climate. There is a bigger picture, a broader world and a greater purpose.
Keep calm and carry on.
