The transatlantic relationship has come under strain in 2026 but has not collapsed. Hopes that the US midterms will ease tensions may be misplaced. To navigate the next two years, Europe needs a versatile playbook that combines cooperation with resilience to coercion.

Russia's shadow fleet is changing in response to mounting European pressure. The EU must respond by widening its legal options, expanding efforts to target those involved in illicit activities, and more actively pursuing the seizure of vessels and cargoes.

By operating across competing groupings, India may be well placed to preserve dialogue and sustain a level of continuity across otherwise distinct policy agendas. This has implications for how Europe approaches its cooperation with New Delhi.