This Brief analyses the recent civil resistance in Sudan, and explores the reasons for the resilience and longevity that have characterised it compared to previous protest movements in the country. In particular, it examines how the events in Sudan demonstrate the potential of strategic non-violence to bring about societal change, even in the face of violent repression. It concludes by outlining three scenarios for the transition process.
At first glance, the MENA appears particularly unsuited to conducting foresight exercises due to its many disruptive and surprising developments. But it is precisely because the region features so many sudden events that foresight here is crucial. This Chaillot Paper opens with three scenarios which lay out the regional state of affairs in 2030, with the catalysts or agents of change elaborated thereafter.
This Brief demonstrates how a ‘pivot’ to conflict prevention in foreign assistance to Mozambique is needed, adjusting international donors’ support towards more targeted conflict-prevention objectives, and balancing the need for conflict sensitivity with the imperative of effective relief and recovery interventions in the areas hit by the cyclone. But it is important to realise that the ‘prevention window’ will not remain open indefinitely, and timely action is therefore of the essence.
This Brief launches a new EUISS series on conflicts, by focusing on the renewed attention to prevention in international peacebuilding at a time when the human and economic costs of violent conflict keep rising.
Since the end of the Second World War, 2.3 million citizens in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have died as a result of political violence. This Brief explains what needs to be known about conflict in the MENA in order to support peace in the region.
Last week, Colombians voted against the peace agreement that the government and the FARC had reached in August to end the country’s civil war. How did this happen? And how will the process move forward?
This Alert offers an overview of the progress made on the multiple fronts of the war against Daesh. Have the international coalition’s efforts to degrade and destroy the jihadist organisation had a meaningful impact?
In the arid region of the Levant, water is a growing driver of instability and conflict. This Brief examines the role water plays in local and regional instability, its place in international aid in the past and present, and ways in which the matter may be addressed in the future.
This Report, which focuses on key features of African armed forces, serves as an introductory guide to those interested not only in the military institutions themselves, but also the context in which European CSDP operations in Africa are deployed.
The decision by EU member states – and others – to supply the Iraqi Kurds with weapons in the face of an onslaught by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) seems logical. But what unintended future consequences could this have?
This report derives from a colloquium on the theme of ‘Women & War’ organised jointly by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) which took place on 30 September 2014 in Brussels. The proceedings of this colloquium have been written by the speakers or by the Delegation of the ICRC in Brussels on the basis of audio recordings of the event.
This independent report commissioned by members of the G7, identifies seven compound climate-fragility risks that pose serious threats to the stability of states and societies in the decades ahead. Based on an assessment of existing policies on climate change adaptation, development cooperation and humanitarian aid, and peacebuilding, the report recommends that the G7 take concrete action to tackle climate-fragility risks and increase the resilience of states and societies to them.
It is now four decades since the outbreak of Lebanon’s civil war. But with similar conflicts spreading across the Middle East, the country’s tragic history can still provide useful lessons on how to end such violence.
Algerian decision-making circles have come to the conclusion that the country is once again facing a protracted war with Islamist terrorism. But unlike the dark decade of the 1990’s, Algiers is now combating jihadists which operate across borders and threaten its entire neighbourhood.
This report, the outcome of a series of meetings of the Arab Foresight Group, an initiative undertaken by the EUISS, presents three alternative scenarios for the Arab world in 2025. These take into account those ‘megatrends’ which are unlikely to change, and outline three different ways in which policymakers can respond to the crises that currently beset the Middle East and North Africa.