Commentary

The NATO summit in Ankara in early July threatens to revolve around one question once again: how do we keep Donald Trump on board? Europe would be much better off focusing on its own plan for military deterrence.

The EU-Western Balkans Summit highlighted renewed momentum for enlargement. Yet ongoing political crises, governance shortcomings and regional tensions show that successful integration will depend as much on domestic reforms and stability as on geopolitical ambition.

Nikol Pashinyan’s election victory keeps Armenia on a pro-European course despite intense Russian pressure. Yet his failure to secure a constitutional majority leaves the peace process with Azerbaijan vulnerable, underscoring the need for sustained EU engagement.

As G7 leaders gather in Évian, growing tensions between the US and its allies risk weakening the Western alliance just as China accelerates its global coalition-building efforts. The summit will test whether the G7 can renew strategic entente in an increasingly contested world.

Europe’s growing deep-strike gap threatens NATO deterrence as US support becomes less certain. European states must move faster to develop, produce and procure affordable deep-strike systems while strengthening the intelligence and targeting networks that make them effective.

Syria's reconstruction will depend not only on foreign investment, but on transparent institutions and effective governance. By prioritising legal reform, public administration and anti-corruption safeguards, the EU can help prevent renewed instability and state capture.

Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops and cancel missile deployments to Germany creates new gaps in European security. Europe must strengthen its long-range strike capabilities, prepare for further US retrenchment and build support for stronger deterrence.

Russia faces rising economic and military strain. The Kremlin may muddle through, or opt to escalate if it senses time is running out. Europe should not be deterred and must strengthen preparedness and support for Ukraine to contain Russia effectively.