China’s sharp curtailment of critical raw material exports in 2025 severely weakened Europe, the US and other countries in their relations with Beijing.
These materials are the backbone of their civilian and defence industries: the production of medical equipment, energy grids, weapon systems and other essential items depends on them.
China controls 70% or more of global refining or mining for half of the 34 materials that the EU designates as ‘critical’. Instead of cutting supplies to zero –and triggering an all-out push towards diversification– Beijing increased exports for most materials again in the latter half of 2025, albeit at lower and strictly controlled levels.
A new Chaillot Paper by Joris Teer argues that Europe is not merely 'collateral damage' in the US-China tech war. Beijing’s export controls – like its vast industrial policies – contribute to China’s broader strategic goals. Despite the danger to their prosperity and security of Beijing cutting supply more radically, American, Japanese, and in particular European diversification efforts are not on track to replace China-dominated production over the next decade.
This Chaillot Paper:
- Examines the key policies underpinning China’s dominance in critical raw material value chains.
- sets out to map the full range of adverse effects that China’s use of critical raw materials as a weapon has had on European prosperity and security.
- proposes a detailed emergency policy package to make a fast, comprehensive, and sustained expansion of critical raw material production in Europe and partner countries financially viable, despite China’s state-sponsored production.
- sets out proposals for economic deterrence to dissuade China from further curtailing supply.
Author Joris Teer, EUISS Policy Analyst for Economic Security and Technology, will be joined by:
- David Rennie, Geopolitics Editor and Author of “The Telegram” column, at the Economist.
- Abby Seadler Wulf, Founder and CEO of the Lattice Initiative. Former Critical Minerals Lead at the U.S. Department of Energy.
- Sander Tordoir, Chief Economist at the Centre for European Reform (CER) (moderator).