China is often portrayed as an unstoppable economic force. But the reality is more complex: China is powerful, but it is also increasingly fragile. This fragility creates both risks and opportunities for Europe.
Official figures put China’s growth at 5% in 2025 but over the coming decade, it is likely to fall below 2.5%, and to around 1% after 2035. The drivers of this slowdown are structural: demographic decline, a collapsed real estate sector, weak household consumption, and rising global protectionism.
As Chinese households save rather than spend, China becomes more dependent on external demand, making access to the European single market a critical economic lifeline. This creates leverage: Europe is not as powerless as it often assumes. Its market size, technological strengths and regulatory power give it real bargaining capacity. The challenge is to use this leverage effectively.
Join Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Tim Rühlig as they present their new Chaillot Paper ‘China – a fragile power? How Europe can use its economic leverage over Beijing’.
They will discuss:
- How China’s changing economic fundamentals are reshaping its external behaviour.
- Why Beijing’s dependence on access to the European Single Market gives the EU real leverage.
- How Europe can use this leverage to secure concrete concessions from China.
- Why this strategy entails risks, but inaction carries even greater costs.
Live on Linkedin and Youtube on 23 April 10-11 a.m CEST
