Africa

The African continent is undergoing profound transformations. Traditional and hybrid threats, growing violent extremism, structural and climate-related vulnerabilities, and migratory pressures represent some of the challenges faced by the continent.

At the same time, Africa is also witnessing fast-paced political, economic and technological progress. This is radically changing its societies and institutions, with African countries gaining a new prominence in a multipolar world, as demonstrated by the accession of the African Union (AU) to the G20 in September 2023.

External shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, have accelerated pre-existing trends.

The relationship between the European Union and African countries and institutions is also evolving, reflecting the new and more competitive geopolitical realities.

The Joint Communication ‘Towards a Comprehensive Strategy with Africa’ calls for a strengthened EU strategic alliance with Africa. It aims to enhance cooperation on global and multilateral affairs based on a clear understanding of respective and mutual interests and responsibilities. The Strategy also highlights shared commitments between the AU and EU, such as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and Agenda 2063. ‘A Joint Vision for 2030’, adopted in 2022, reiterates the need for a closer partnership for a common future and identifies key priorities in four domains: prosperity and sustainability, peace and security, migration and mobility and multilateralism.

EUISS research on Africa

The EUISS provides innovative research, analysis and advice to support EU and Member States’ strategies and policies towards Africa. Our objective is to contribute to forging a stronger partnership between the two continents.

The EUISS uses its convening power to facilitate knowledge sharing, brainstorming, consensus building and dialogues with stakeholders and local partners, to break new ground on matters affecting Africa-EU relations. The Institute looks at evolving conflict dynamics across the continent, formulating recommendations on how to strengthen the implementation of the EU’s integrated approach.

The EUISS also monitors political, economic and security trends in countries at risk of falling or relapsing into conflict, to make the case for prevention when EU action can be impactful, using strategic foresight methodologies.

Finally, the EUISS studies the African geopolitical landscape and the role of new geopolitical actors projecting their influence in the continent, as well as related emerging challenges, such as cyber risks and hybrid threats.

Flagship initiatives

Chaillot Papers

Four flagship publications exploring the new geo-strategic landscape in Africa:

The Africa Atlas ‘maps’ areas of shared interest in the partnership between the EU and the AU and key trends and trajectories by means of visuals and infographics, thus letting data speak through graphics, charts and maps.
African Spaces accounts for physical and non-physical spaces where geopolitical competition takes place in the continent.
African Futures 2030 uses foresight scenarios to explore the implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area for peace and prosperity.
African Strategies analyses the evolution of European and global actors’ strategies towards the continent, as a result of the ‘new scramble for Africa’.

EUISS-COAFR Meetings

Since January 2019, the EUISS organises regular meetings with the European Council’s Working Party on Africa (COAFR). Sessions are designed to provide delegates of EU Member States with innovative approaches and facilitate knowledge-sharing on selected regions, countries or topics, contributing to Africa-related policy planning and joint analysis.

Conflict Series – Policy Briefs

The Conflict Series examines contemporary conflict situations and conflict-related thematic issues to contribute to enhanced conflict analysis that serves policy planning and policymaking. Several analyses of African conflict situations have been published under the series.

Imagine Africa Series – Policy Briefs

The Imagine Africa Series provided a platform for African experts to discuss potential futures for Africa using strategic foresight scenarios on selected priority areas for Africa-Europe cooperation. Five policy briefs were published under the series and dedicated to the broad theme of ‘people-centred development’. The full list is available here.

African Futures Task Force

From November 2019 to December 2020, the EUISS ran an African Futures Task Force. Its main objective was to explore trends affecting the future of Africa in the next ten years, emphasising challenges and opportunities for policymaking. The task force resulted in the publication of the Chaillot Paper ‘African Futures 2030: free trade, peace and prosperity’ on 9 March 2021.

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04October 2022
Giovanni Faleg at webinar on the impact of the war in Ukraine on Africa-Europe relations
Giovanni Faleg participated in a webinar organised by Amani Africa, the Institute of Security Studies, the Institute for Peace and Security Studies and the European Centre for Development Policy Management on the topic “Can the Ukraine conflict build bridges between Africa and Europe?”.
26September 2022
The African Union at 20
On 26 September, the EUISS and the European Council’s Working Party on Africa (COAFR) held their eighteenth meeting to discuss and celebrate a fundamental partner to Europe: the African Union (AU).
14September 2022
Giovanni Faleg speaks at IISS Webinar on Sub-Saharan Africa Risk Outlook
On 14 September, Giovanni Faleg spoke at the Webinar “Sub-Saharan Africa Risk Outlook: Internationalisation of protracted conflicts and faltering responses” organized by the International Institute for Security Studies (IISS).
31August 2022
The future of African migration and mobility
Briefs
By
Mehari Taddele Maru
This fourth Brief in the Imagine Africa series examines the issue of population movement and migratory flows – both within and outside Africa – and seeks to identify likely changes in future migration patterns, and how these will impact on the partnership between the AU and the EU.
25May 2022
Countering information manipulation in CSDP
On 25 May, the EUISS and the French Presidency of the EU, with the support of the European External Action Service, organised a roundtable on “Countering Information Manipulation in CSDP”.
23May 2022
EUISS at the Stockholm Forum
The Institute participated to the 2022 Stockholm Forum on Peace and Development. Together with the United State Institute for Peace, and the Peace in our Cities network, we organised a roundtable on urbanisation, fragility, violence and climate change.
12May 2022
Geopolitics of African Oceans
On 12 May, the EUISS and the Africa Working Party of the Council of the EU (COAFR) held their seventeenth meeting to discuss the new geopolitical frontlines in Africa.
12May 2022
Twitter Space on geopolitical frontlines in Africa
On 12 May 2022, the Institute held its first Twitter Space, discussing geopolitical frontlines in Africa, a topic covered in our African Spaces Chaillot Paper.
23March 2022
Rising hybrid threats in Africa
On 23 March, the EUISS and the European Council’s Working Party on Africa (COAFR) held their sixteenth meeting to discuss the rise of hybrid threats in sub-Saharan Africa, and how these are manifested in the macro-region and beyond.
17March 2022
Giovanni Faleg and Nad’a Kovalčíková at the EU Council Horizontal Working Party on Enhancing Resilience and Countering Hybrid
A meeting to present the findings of a co-authored Brief on hybrid threats in Africa.

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30June 2020
African Strategies
European and global approaches towards sub-Saharan Africa
Chaillot Papers
By
Giovanni Faleg, Carlo Palleschi
This Chaillot Paper analyses the evolution of EU member states’ strategies towards sub-Saharan Africa, as well as those of global actors, against the backdrop of systemic changes, including the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic. It seeks to identify the points of convergence – and divergence – in member states’ strategies, and examines how a coherent, joint EU strategy can be achieved.
11June 2020
From bad to worse? The impact(s) of Covid-19 on conflict dynamics
Briefs
Katariina Mustasilta
The global crisis caused by the Covid-19 outbreak has had particularly disruptive consequences for conflict-affected countries around the world. Armed groups have capitalised on the crisis, while the global distraction caused by the pandemic has made it difficult to seize opportunities for peace. This Brief analyses key repercussions in conflict-affected countries in general, and in five countries in particular: Colombia, Libya, Sudan, Ukraine and Yemen.
31March 2020
Russia's forays into sub-Saharan Africa
Briefs
By
Giovanni Faleg, Stanislav Secrieru
Russia is mounting a remarkable political comeback in sub-Saharan Africa through a ‘low costs, high returns and visibility’ approach. Can a coherent strategy be discerned behind this push? And how is sub-Saharan Africa reacting to Russia’s overtures and what does it mean for the EU?
24January 2020
What if...? 14 futures for 2024
Chaillot Papers
Edited by
Florence Gaub
With contributions from
Alice Ekman, Giovanni Faleg, Daniel Fiott, Gustav Lindstrom, Katariina Mustasilta, Roderick Parkes, Patryk Pawlak, Clara Portela, Sinikukka Saari, Stanislav Secrieru, Simona R. Soare, Nathalie Van Raemdonck, John-Joseph Wilkins
According to a famous science fiction film, the future is what you make of it. This Chaillot Paper takes this quote from Back to the Future to heart, proposing 14 different portraits of the future for the year 2024.
08October 2019
Resetting Ethiopia
Briefs
By
Giovanni Faleg
Strengthening the resilience of the Ethiopian state and preventing an escalation of political violence are two policy priorities in view of the 2020 elections. But how can conflict risks be mitigated? And can the ambitious reform agenda be reconciled with concrete local needs and ethnic grievances?
25September 2019
Three scenarios for Sudan
Briefs
By
Katariina Mustasilta
This Brief analyses the recent civil resistance in Sudan, and explores the reasons for the resilience and longevity that have characterised it compared to previous protest movements in the country. In particular, it examines how the events in Sudan demonstrate the potential of strategic non-violence to bring about societal change, even in the face of violent repression. It concludes by outlining three scenarios for the transition process.
18July 2019
EUISS Yearbook of European Security 2019
Books
By
Daniel Fiott
The 2019 Yearbook of European Security provides an overview of events in 2018 that were significant for European security and charts major developments in the EU’s external action and security and defence policy.
10April 2019
Conflict prevention in Mozambique
Briefs
By
Giovanni Faleg
This Brief demonstrates how a ‘pivot’ to conflict prevention in foreign assistance to Mozambique is needed, adjusting international donors’ support towards more targeted conflict-prevention objectives, and balancing the need for conflict sensitivity with the imperative of effective relief and recovery interventions in the areas hit by the cyclone. But it is important to realise that the ‘prevention window’ will not remain open indefinitely, and timely action is therefore of the essence.
09April 2019
Iceberg ahead! Rethinking conflict prevention
Briefs
By
Giovanni Faleg, Florence Gaub
This Brief launches a new EUISS series on conflicts, by focusing on the renewed attention to prevention in international peacebuilding at a time when the human and economic costs of violent conflict keep rising.
25March 2019
Can peace become affordable?
Briefs
By
Paul M. Bisca
How can SSR assistance lead to effective and sustainable reforms, and ultimately contribute to reduce fragility, conflict and violence? This Brief seeks to answer these questions by analysing the introduction and implementation of the security sector public expenditure review (PER), a public sector governance instrument that assesses the efficiency and financial sustainability of governments’ security and defence allocations, including SSR programmes.