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Arab Futures 2.0

19 September 2019

At first glance, the MENA appears particularly unsuited to conducting foresight exercises due to its many disruptive and surprising developments. But it is precisely because the region features so many sudden events that foresight here is crucial. This Chaillot Paper opens with three scenarios which lay out the regional state of affairs in 2030, with the catalysts or agents of change elaborated thereafter.

Stress tests

03 September 2019
The EU increasingly makes use of crisis scenarios to forecast the future and identify capability gaps. This Brief shows how simulations and exercises can only add value to preparedness efforts when they are but one element of a wider crisis response architecture.

What if....? Scanning the horizon: 12 scenarios for 2021

25 January 2019
Edited by

The 150th Chaillot Paper produced by the EUISS, this publication aims to alert decision-makers to potential developments with significant strategic impact while they can still prepare for, or even avoid them.

The benefit of hindsight: what we got wrong – and why

25 January 2019
This Brief examines how reflecting on past predictions and assessing how accurate – or not – they proved to be helps to improve foresight capacities. It also shows that mistakes in foresight are not necessarily negative, as long as they are examined to evaluate the reasons why they came about.

Strategic foresight and scenario planning

22 January 2019

On 22 January 2019, the EUISS organised a strategic foresight workshop for representatives from the EUSR in BiH, the EU Delegation and EUFOR Operation Althea.

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