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Three scenarios for Sudan

25 September 2019
This Brief analyses the recent civil resistance in Sudan, and explores the reasons for the resilience and longevity that have characterised it compared to previous protest movements in the country. In particular, it examines how the events in Sudan demonstrate the potential of strategic non-violence to bring about societal change, even in the face of violent repression. It concludes by outlining three scenarios for the transition process.

Stress tests

03 September 2019
The EU increasingly makes use of crisis scenarios to forecast the future and identify capability gaps. This Brief shows how simulations and exercises can only add value to preparedness efforts when they are but one element of a wider crisis response architecture.

Russia in the Western Balkans

02 July 2019
Russia's grand aspirational objective is to bring back what is deemed in Moscow to be a more natural state of play for the Balkans: multipolarity. But what is the Russian modus operandi in the region? Is it confined only to coercion, as the headlines suggest, or is there a softer side to Russia’s power?

The poison pill: EU defence on US terms?

14 June 2019
In light of rising tensions between Washington and the EU over defence markets, this Brief looks at the asymmetry between US and European defence markets. It examines the web of regulations and laws which effectively provides the US government with the discretionary power to control its defence market and technologies.

Connecting the dots: challenges to EU connectivity in Central Asia

03 June 2019
This Brief looks into connectivity-related challenges and how they relate to the EU’s new Central Asia Strategy and its vision of connectivity. It examines the legacy of Soviet connectivity, the significance of regional informal networks, as well as the impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Russia’s Great Eurasian Partnership.

Conflict prevention in Mozambique

10 April 2019
This Brief demonstrates how a ‘pivot’ to conflict prevention in foreign assistance to Mozambique is needed, adjusting international donors’ support towards more targeted conflict-prevention objectives, and balancing the need for conflict sensitivity with the imperative of effective relief and recovery interventions in the areas hit by the cyclone. But it is important to realise that the ‘prevention window’ will not remain open indefinitely, and timely action is therefore of the essence.

Preventing the re-emergence of chemical weapons

03 April 2019
This Brief explores the ways the international community has responded to the new developments to preserve and strengthen the norm against CW use. It first offers a short historical overview of chemical warfare, followed by a review of resurgent use of toxic agents. It next introduces the CWC. A discussion of the challenges the new-found utility of such agents pose to the convention concludes the Brief.

Can peace become affordable?

25 March 2019
How can SSR assistance lead to effective and sustainable reforms, and ultimately contribute to reduce fragility, conflict and violence? This Brief seeks to answer these questions by analysing the introduction and implementation of the security sector public expenditure review (PER), a public sector governance instrument that assesses the efficiency and financial sustainability of governments’ security and defence allocations, including SSR programmes.

The benefit of hindsight: what we got wrong – and why

25 January 2019
This Brief examines how reflecting on past predictions and assessing how accurate – or not – they proved to be helps to improve foresight capacities. It also shows that mistakes in foresight are not necessarily negative, as long as they are examined to evaluate the reasons why they came about.

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