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What if....? Scanning the horizon: 12 scenarios for 2021

This Chaillot Paper, the 150th produced by the EUISS, aims to alert decision-makers to potential developments with significant strategic impact while they can still prepare for, or even avoid them. This is done using two methods combined: horizon-scanning as well as single scenario-building.

25 January 2019
Chaillot Papers

The benefit of hindsight

This Brief examines how reflecting on past predictions and assessing how accurate – or not – they proved to be helps to improve foresight capacities. It also shows that mistakes in foresight are not necessarily negative, as long as they are examined to evaluate the reasons why they came about.
25 January 2019
Briefs

Guns, engines and turbines – The EU’s hard power in Asia

Considering arms trade an integral part of the EU’s foreign policy toolbox, what is the status of security cooperation between Europe and Asia? Who exactly benefits from European military technology and know-how and how does that affect the overall strategic balance in the region?

27 November 2018
Chaillot Papers

Artificial Intelligence – What implications for EU security and defence?

This Brief seeks to advance the discussion about AI and security and defence within an EU context, and also to offer policymakers a few analytical pointers that may be useful when dealing with defence and AI.

08 November 2018
Briefs

Hacks, leaks and disruptions – Russian cyber strategies

What role do cyber operations play as an instrument of Russia’s coercive diplomacy? This Chaillot Paper explores how Russia’s increasingly assertive behaviour in cyberspace has lent new urgency to the debate about cybersecurity in the West.

23 October 2018
Chaillot Papers

Balkan futures – Three scenarios for 2025

What will the Western Balkans look like in 2025? This Chaillot Paper presents three contrasting scenarios for the horizon of 2025 – best-case, medium-case, and worst-case, with each scenario taking account of the impact of underlying megatrends.

03 September 2018
Chaillot Papers
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The benefit of hindsight
Briefs
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What if....? Scanning the horizon: 12 scenarios for 2021
Chaillot Papers
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Along the Road – China in the Arctic
Briefs
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Strategic autonomy: towards ‘European sovereignty’ in defence?
Briefs
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Guns, engines and turbines – The EU’s hard power in Asia
Chaillot Papers
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Putin’s fourth term – The twilight begins?
Briefs
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Artificial Intelligence – What implications for EU security and defence?
Briefs
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European armaments standardisation
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Strategic foresight

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The benefit of hindsight
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What if....? Scanning the horizon: 12 scenarios for 2021
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Balkan futures – Three scenarios for 2025
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African futures: Horizon 2025
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Chinese futures: horizon 2025
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What if ... Conceivable crises: unpredictable in 2017, unmanageable in 2020?
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Envisioning European defence – Five futures
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Russian futures: horizon 2025
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European armaments standardisation
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This Study analyses the armaments standardisation approaches of the EU and NATO and it provides an overview of policy initiatives in the domains of maritime information sharing and remotely piloted aircraft systems.

Activities

29January 2019
Security and Stability in West Africa: EUISS-COAFR Breakfast Meeting

On 29 January, the EUISS and the European Council’s Working Party on Africa (COAFR) jointly organised in Brussels the first of a series of breakfast meetings on sub-Saharan Africa.

25January 2019
2019 – What’s to come?

On 25 January, the EUISS organised a major conference on strategic foresight in Brussels.

22January 2019
Strategic foresight and scenario planning

On 22 January 2019, the EUISS organised a strategic foresight workshop for representatives from the EUSR in BiH, the EU Delegation and EUFOR Operation Althea.

14December 2018
EU-China Informal Security Dialogue

On 14 December 2018, the EUISS co-organised the EU-China Informal Security Dialogue in Beijing, together with the External Action Service (EEAS), the International College of Defence Studies (ICDS) of the China National Defence...

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