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The EUISS foresight podcast

15 May 2020

The EUISS' ‘What if’ podcast is a foreign policy foresight conversation: it looks at fictional scenarios that could happen between now and the end of 2021, discussing questions like: under what circumstances could this come about? What would it mean? Can we prevent it, or how would we have to respond to it? And lastly: how likely is it?

Season 1 

1) What if... there was another American civil war? 

2) What if...another civil war became international?

3) What if...Russia and Europe clashed in Africa?

4) What if...Warren/Trump/Biden became president in 2021 - and what each means for the Middle East

5) What if...Russia clashes with Ukraine in the Sea of Azov?

6) What if...China and Russia partner up in cyberspace?

Season 2

The EUISS' ‘What if’ podcast returns for a second season, this time looking at the foreign policy implication of the covid19 crisis.

1) What if...the internet didn't exist during a pandemic?

In this episode, EUISS associate analyst Nathalie van Raemdonck discusses a counterfactual 'What if ...?' scenario with Florence Gaub: a COVID-19 pandemic without the internet. From crisis management to problem-solving: would it have been easier, harder, or just noisier?

2) What if...China uses the coronavirus crisis to promote its world vision?​

In this episode, EUISS senior analyst Alice Ekman discusses with Florence Gaub how China has not just survived the pandemic crisis but is in fact thriving on it. From the Belt and Road Initiative to its vision for the world in 2050, Beijing is making the most of a crisis other countries are barely managing to cope with - or is it?

3) What if...Covid-19 leads to a decline in remittances to Georgia, Ukraine & Moldova?

In this episode, EUISS senior analyst Stanislav Secrieru discusses with Florence Gaub what economic impact Covid-19 will have on three Eastern neighbourhood states. Will the flow of remittances cease altogether? How will people and states cope? And what can we do about it?

4) What if... Putin mismanages Covid-19?

Russia initially seemed to be doing better than other states when it came to the pandemic, but it has since emerged that the truth is far from what the Kremlin projected. How is Putin managing Covid-19? What do Russians think about it – and what does it mean for Putin's future projects? EUISS Senior Associate Analyst Sinikukka Saari explains it all to Florence Gaub in this episode.

5) What if...Covid-19 leads to an escalation of conflicts?

Currently 43 states in the world are experiencing ongoing conflicts. What impact will the Covid-19 pandemic have on these conflicts? Will they escalate, or is there perhaps an opportunity for peace? EUISS Senior Associate Analyst Katariina Mustasilta discusses with Florence Gaub how conflict research sheds light on the link between discontent and crisis.

6) What if...Africa was immune to Covid-19?

Projections show a possible death toll of more than 3 million for Africa, but what if these calculations turn out to be wrong? EUISS Senior Analyst Giovanni Faleg discusses with Florence Gaub whether we can expect lower fatality rates, what this could mean for the continent, and what needs to be done urgently.