COTRA away-day 2024

On 8 November 2024, the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) hosted the Working Party on Transatlantic Relations (COTRA) in Paris for an away-day, discussing the implications of the US elections for the EU.

The EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) hosted the Working Party on Transatlantic Relations (COTRA) in Paris for an away-day on 8 November, just a few days after the Presidential Elections in the US. The event was organised by Giuseppe Spatafora, Associate Analyst for Transatlantic Relations at the EUISS.

In the first session of the away-day, EUISS Director Steven Everts and EUISS analysts reflected on the impact of the results of the US elections on key areas of EU foreign policy.

The discussion highlighted the following points:

• Deep changes are taking place in American society, and Europeans need to take this phenomenon seriously. Donald Trump received the support from a diverse sector of voters, cutting across traditional divides.
• Three main features are likely to shape US foreign policy in the coming year: America First (i.e. a focus on reindustrialisation which could impact international alliances and global governance); Peace through strength (which will focus on ending the wars that are associated with the previous administration, with significant consequences for Ukraine and the Middle East); and a transactional approach to foreign policy, which brings an element of unpredictability. China will remain the core issue of the US administration, as it would have been the case “regardless” of a Trump or Harris victory.
• In dealing with the United States, the EU should ensure unity, and maintain close partnerships with like-minded countries that all have a stake in a reliable US engagement in the world, such as Canada, Japan, the UK, and South Korea.

EUISS analysts further discussed the impact of the new Trump presidency on some key areas of EU foreign policy:

• Russia’s war against Ukraine (with remarks by Ondrej Ditrych, Senior Analyst for Russia and Eastern Europe).
• Stability in the Western Balkans (with remarks by Bojana Zorić, Associate Analyst for Western Balkans) and the African continent (with remarks by Rossella Marangio, Senior Analyst for Subsaharan Africa).

For additional details, please see the EUISS special series “From Washington to Brussels: the US election and EU foreign policy.”

During the away-day, the EUISS invited the Group to engage in a flags-down exercise based on potential scenarios, developed by the EUISS, under Chatham House rules. The exercise resulted in a series of proposals on strengthening European defence and ensuring the achievement of the EU’s foreign and security policy objectives.