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Álvaro de Vasconcelos was quoted by William Pfaff

Alvaro de Vasconcelos, head of the European Union Institute for Security Studies, said Tuesday [April 19] that saving Misrata from its siege by Qaddafi loyalist forces would “almost certainly” precipitate the end of the regime, “trigger an anti-Qaddafi uprising in Tripolitania, and thus force a political solution.”
williampfaff.com