Q: The future of EU-US security and defence cooperation: what lies ahead?
Genuine EU-US defence cooperation has to be based on a more effective and equitable burden-sharing. To this end, Europeans have to raise their game.
This year's EU-Washington Forum will take place on 27-28 October, in Washington D.C., as usual. But unusual this year are the extraordinary changes that have been taking place across the Arab world. These events have given us a unique context in which to examine EU-US relations, which is why this year's Forum will focus on these remarkable geopolitical changes.
In the build up to the EU-Washington Forum, we have invited a handful of prominent journalists, think tankers, policy makers and experts to take place in an online debate about the roles of the US, the EU and the international community in the Arab uprisings of 2011.
Not only will this website be a focal point of the debate, but we aim also to use social media - the very tool that empowered the citizens in Arab countries. The debates will be open for all to make their voices heard over Twitter or Facebook, so make sure you follow our Twitter and Facebook channels to keep up to date.
Click here to download a summary of the debates
While Hosni Mubarak’s internationally-televised ouster in Cairo may represent a huge step towards freedom for the Egyptian people, it may not necessarily be such a positive shift for Egyptian-Israeli relations. Bringing broader regional shifts into the equation, such as the uprising in Syria and escalating tensions between Israel and Turkey, makes the situation ever-more delicate.
And the mood in Israel has hit a low point too. Several large anti-government demonstrations have made it abundantly clear that there is a clear divergence between the traditionally security-dominated domestic agenda of policymakers and the more economically and socially concerned Israeli citizens. Add to that the upcoming UN debate about the future of Palestinian statehood and Israel will surely have a huge headache.
Is this state of confusion a window of opportunity for reviving the stalled peace negotiations? Or does it risk further alienating and radicalising the affected parties?
Despite the similarities in the way the protests have unfolded in the Arab world, different dynamics in each country have meant the challenges vary markedly from country to country. Understanding the complexity of these dynamics will be a major challenge for the EU, the US or any other actor with a stake in the region.
Yet the optimism to which the uprisings gave birth cannot overshadow some of the obvious truths about the nature of transformation. Political struggles need to be faced up to. Conflicts about the objectives and tools of domestic and foreign policies must be deal with. And some of the more sensitive questions that will need to be addressed include: the role of the military, the division of powers between branches of government and the role of religion and political Islam in the future.
With transformations in many countries under way, what should come next? And who should take responsibility for the future of the region?
The revolution in Tunisia at the beginning of this year took everybody by surprise. While European and American leaders were calculating which Arab dictator would fall next, they were also scrambling around nervously for an appropriate response. Having supported the Arab autocrats for many years, their credibility in the region has been substantially damaged.
While support of democratic movements in the Arab countries seemed to be the right choice, it was not and still is not the obvious one. True, too much involvement in the initial stages could have internally undermined the democratic ambitions of parts of Tunisian, Egyptian and Libyan society and jeopardised the whole process. But the belated Western response to the bloodshed in Syria or the ambivalence towards the protests in Bahrain or Yemen all leave lingering doubts about the commitment of the EU and the US to democratisation.
Have the EU and US responded in the right way to the Arab democratic wave? Or have they remained impotent bystanders in this historic moment?
The debate about the future of European and American defence will be probably one of the most interesting. The lessons from Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya will likely promote a more selective approach towards international engagements.
At the same time, the case of Libya clearly demonstrates that any future US military involvement under the auspices of ‘global policing’ will be dependent on the contribution of other countries, most notably from Europe.
Amidst budgetary cuts in US defence expenditure, there is no clear strategy and long-term vision. Europeans, on the other hand, cannot themselves come to terms with their own defence debates, including the establishment of a joint military headquarters.
What is the future of European and American defence? And how will the choices of today influence EU-US security cooperation in the years to come?