An agency of the EU

EU-Washington Forum 2011 debate 

 

This year's EU-Washington Forum will take place on 27-28 October, in Washington D.C., as usual. But unusual this year are the extraordinary changes that have been taking place across the Arab world. These events have given us a unique context in which to examine EU-US relations, which is why this year's Forum will focus on these remarkable geopolitical changes. 

In the build up to the EU-Washington Forum, we have invited a handful of prominent journalists, think tankers, policy makers and experts to take place in an online debate about the roles of the US, the EU and the international community in the Arab uprisings of 2011. 

Not only will this website be a focal point of the debate, but we aim also to use social media - the very tool that empowered the citizens in Arab countries. The debates will be open for all to make their voices heard over Twitter or Facebook, so make sure you follow our Twitter and Facebook channels to keep up to date.

Click here to download a summary of the debates

 

Debate 1:

The Arab democratic wave and the Middle East: a window of opportunity?

 

While Hosni Mubarak’s internationally-televised ouster in Cairo may represent a huge step towards freedom for the Egyptian people, it may not necessarily be such a positive shift for Egyptian-Israeli relations. Bringing broader regional shifts into the equation, such as the uprising in Syria and escalating tensions between Israel and Turkey, makes the situation ever-more delicate.

And the mood in Israel has hit a low point too. Several large anti-government demonstrations have made it abundantly clear that there is a clear divergence between the traditionally security-dominated domestic agenda of policymakers and the more economically and socially concerned Israeli citizens. Add to that the upcoming UN debate about the future of Palestinian statehood and Israel will surely have a huge headache.

 

Is this state of confusion a window of opportunity for reviving the stalled peace negotiations? Or does it risk further alienating and radicalising the affected parties?

 


The arguments:

 

"Not for Israel"
Daniel Steinvorth
Der Spiegel
Foreign Affairs Editor
"After losing Turkey and Egypt, evacuating its embassy in Jordan and awaiting further conflict on the eve of a looming Palestinian statehood, Israel’s foreign policy is in ruins."

"The Palestinians think so"
Ruth Hanau Santini
Brookings Insitution
Visiting Fellow
"The Palestinian Authority has rightly interpreted the uprisings as a wake up call. The new era of Arab politics requires the elaboration of a new process for peacemaking based upon a deeper involvement of Arab actors."

"Not really"
Patrycja Sasnal
Polish Institute of International Affairs
Analyst
"If the Arab Spring were to become a game changer, it would have been evident at the UN with the Palestinian bid for statehood. The Arab Spring is just another variable in an already complex equation."

 

"Not for the Peace Process"
Costanza Musu
University of Ottawa
Associate Professor
"The progress and legitimacy stemming from greater democratisation in the Arab world looks set to derail the Middle East peace process as we know it." 

"Yes, without Western interference"
Carolin Goerzig
German Institute for International and Security Affairs
TAPIR Fellow
"If democracy is to constructively transform the Middle East, it is imperative that the West learns from the mistakes of the past, and strictly limits its involvement in the internal politics of the new emerging regimes."

"Depends on the old guard"
Thomas Demmelhuber
University of Erlangen-Nürnberg
Lecturer
"The 2011 revolts across the Middle East will undoubtedly lead to massive changes, but the precise nature and outcomes of these events remain an intricate puzzle."

Debate 2:

Transformations in the Arab world: what next?

 

Despite the similarities in the way the protests have unfolded in the Arab world, different dynamics in each country have meant the challenges vary markedly from country to country. Understanding the complexity of these dynamics will be a major challenge for the EU, the US or any other actor with a stake in the region. 

Yet the optimism to which the uprisings gave birth cannot overshadow some of the obvious truths about the nature of transformation. Political struggles need to be faced up to. Conflicts about the objectives and tools of domestic and foreign policies must be deal with. And some of the more sensitive questions that will need to be addressed include: the role of the military, the division of powers between branches of government and the role of religion and political Islam in the future. 


With transformations in many countries under way, what should come next? And who should take responsibility for the future of the region? 

 


The arguments:

 

"Support"
Jack A. Goldstone
George Mason University
Center for Global Policy Director
"Although the West should refrain from direct interference in the new politics of the Arab world, it should be willing to assist the region's peoples in their attempts to recover lost dignity."

"Individual assessment"
David Kenner
Foreign Policy Magazine
Associate Editor
"Regional diversity and the specific needs of individual countries mean that there can be no cure-all prescription for the challenges currently facing the people of the Arab world."

"Protection and encouragement"
Jordi Vaquer
CIDOB
Director
"The transitional tools at the disposal of the West have proven to be inadequate. Protecting new regimes from foreign meddling and encouraging domestic-driven reforms are the only options as direct external interference could prove counter-productive."

"Prudence"
John Herbst
National Defense University
Center for Complex Operations Director
"Despite the apparent success of the rebels and NATO in Libya, it would be wise to remember that many key challenges still lie ahead for the Transitional National Council."

"Arab leadership"
Daniel Serwer
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Senior Fellow
"It is not for Europeans and Americans to lead. It is the citizens whose rights have been abridged who have to in the first instance lay claim to better."

"Winning hearts and minds"
Patryk Pawlak
EU Institute for Security Studies
Research Fellow
"With perceptions of the US in the Middle East becoming increasingly negative, it would be irresponsible for the EU to ignore this fact. In its policy choices, it should not be guided by its connections with the US but rather by its own strategic interests in the region."

"Complementarity"
Neil Winn
University of Leeds
Senior Lecturer
"At present European foreign and security policy is less than the sum of its parts. The EU and the US need to develop credible Mediterranean and Gulf policies which can stand alone and also work together when necessary."

 

"Regional cooperation"
Isabelle Ioannides
Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) at the European Commission 
Adviser
"The EU now has a real opportunity to positively contribute to the future of the Middle East. But to do so successfully it must engage in dialogue with all local stakeholders and encourage greater regional cooperation."

 

"More open societies"
Marietje Schaake
MEP 
Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe
"The West should strive to have a positive impact on the level of openness of these societies in transition. It should  ensure that access to information, communication and the free flow of information are guaranteed as much as possible in order to let the people speak."

 

Debate 3:

Impotent bystanders? How did the EU and US respond to the Arab Spring?


The revolution in Tunisia at the beginning of this year took everybody by surprise. While European and American leaders were calculating which Arab dictator would fall next, they were also scrambling around nervously for an appropriate response. Having supported the Arab autocrats for many years, their credibility in the region has been substantially damaged.

While support of democratic movements in the Arab countries seemed to be the right choice, it was not and still is not the obvious one. True, too much involvement in the initial stages could have internally undermined the democratic ambitions of parts of Tunisian, Egyptian and Libyan society and jeopardised the whole process. But the belated Western response to the bloodshed in Syria or the ambivalence towards the protests in Bahrain or Yemen all leave lingering doubts about the commitment of the EU and the US to democratisation. 

 

Have the EU and US responded in the right way to the Arab democratic wave? Or have they remained impotent bystanders in this historic moment? 

 


The arguments:


"Nervously"
Simon Tisdall
The Guardian
World Affairs Columnist/Associate Editor
"For much of the Arab Spring, the West remained paralysed and incapable of effectively intervening. Nevertheless, the new political realities of the region have given it a chance to end its double standards and support reform that is long overdue."


"With sufficient realism"
Daniel Möckli
Center for Security Studies at the ETH Zurich 
Senior Researcher
"There are good reasons why Europe and the US have not played a more active role in the Arab awakening. The intervention in Libya has revealed the price of over-engagement."


"The same as always"
Timo Behr
Finnish Institute for International Affairs
Researcher
"The erratic response of Europe towards the political upheaval in the Middle East has revealed that geopolitical interests, not democratisation, have so far been its primary concern."

"Messily"
Eva Gross
Institute of European Studies
Senior Research Fellow
"Brussels has faced an uphill battle to assert its position. A cacophony of voices from individual European capitals drowned out Brussels-based institutions and personalities."

"Well in rhetoric, predictable in delivery"
Henning Riecke
German Council on Foreign Relations
Head of US/Transatlantic Relations Programme 
"The EU needs European governments to champion its role in the Arab Spring, but its members are not so enthusiastic. Do European governments understand the strategic importance of getting involved, and the urgency of doing so? The US seems to."

"Sluggishly"
Sebastian Gräfe
Heinrich Böll Foundation
Program Director for Foreign & Security Policy and Transatlantic Issues
"The US is currently facing a tremendous loss of influence in the region. Changing US policy toward authoritarian regimes has been like turning an oil tanker."

"Cautiously"
Andrew Tabler
Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Next Generation Fellow
"Indecision over how to match the words of 'Assad must step aside' with action has hamstrung concerted multilateral action. The first step is making sure Europe and America speak with one voice."



Debate 4:

The future of EU-US security and defence cooperation: what lies ahead?

 

The debate about the future of European and American defence will be probably one of the most interesting. The lessons from Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya will likely promote a more selective approach towards international engagements. 

At the same time, the case of Libya clearly demonstrates that any future US military involvement under the auspices of ‘global policing’ will be dependent on the contribution of other countries, most notably from Europe. 

Amidst budgetary cuts in US defence expenditure, there is no clear strategy and long-term vision. Europeans, on the other hand, cannot themselves come to terms with their own defence debates, including the establishment of a joint military headquarters. 

 

What is the future of European and American defence? And how will the choices of today influence EU-US security cooperation in the years to come? 

 


The arguments:

 

"Divergence"
Richard Gowan
European Council on Foreign Relations
Policy Fellow
"It seems all too possible that the US and EU’s contrasting strategic concerns will continue to dilute their military cooperation in the years ahead."

"Bilateralism"
Sally McNamara
Heritage Foundation
Senior Policy Analyst
"Washington should continue to work with national governments who share its approach to tackling the threats of today and tomorrow, and Brussels should simply get out of the way."

 

 

"Cuts and constraints"
Earl Fry
University of Helsinki
Fulbright Bicentennial Chair, American Studies
"As government debt on both sides of the Atlantic continues to grow, defence will be a prime target for cuts and downsizing. These constraints will call for greater EU-US burden sharing, stressing Europe’s already meagre defence outlays."

"The usual"
Sven Biscop

Egmont
Europe in the World Programme Director
"European states were in the lead, but once again Europe was not. Europeans have no collective idea whatsoever of their role as security providers in their own neighbourhood."

 

"Smart defence"
James Joyner
Atlantic Council
Managing Editor
"The ongoing military operations in Libya have underscored the need for transatlantic security cooperation while highlighting the weaknesses that future military cuts will only exasperate."

"European enhancement"
Clara O'Donnell
Brookings Institution
Visiting Fellow
"For the sake of both European and international security, Europeans would do well to listen to their US counterparts and improve their individual as well as collective military capabilities."

 

 

"Europe losing ground"
Asle Toje
Nobel Institute, Oslo
Acting Research Director
"The EU failing to deliver in Libya is an important indicator as to what can be expected in the future. The Union will leave it to others to do the heavy lifting and it will continue to selectively engage issues on the margins."

 

"Breaking the cycle of dependence"
Claude-France Arnould
European Defence Agency
Chief Executive
"Genuine EU-US defence cooperation has to be based on a more effective and equitable burden-sharing. To this end, Europeans have to raise their game."

"Central European cooperation"
Xymena Kurowska
Central European University
Assistant Professor
"The financial crisis and the need for greater burden-sharing has presented the opportunity for regional defence initiatives to develop; Central Europe is now up for grabs." 

 

"European leadership"
Laura Lee Smith
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Visiting Fellow
"As the USA goes its own way, the EU may be granted access to the helm of international security; this in turn would have severe implications for both NATO and the role of soft power in the world."

 

 

"A cooperative imperative"
Stephen Flanagan
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Senior Vice President and Henry A. Kissinger Chair
"If NATO’s current level of ambition is to be retained in the face of severe fiscal hardship, collective reforms and increased multinational collaboration are absolutely essential."

"Confusion"
Daniel Keohane
EU Institute for Security Studies
Senior Research Fellow
"Europeans need to think much harder about their collective interests. If they do not, EU-US security and defence cooperation faces a confusing and difficult future."

 

 

"Disintegration"
Thomas Wright
Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago
Lecturer
"If EU member states are overwhelmed by the Eurocrisis, it could lead to the unraveling of European integration as we know it. Then, Europe will be a problem to be solved, not a partner in upholding the international order."

"Separation"
Bjoern H. Seibert
Harvard University
Associate
"What will change is America’s willingness to use its scarce defence resources to underwrite European security. As a result, Europeans will need to learn to shoulder their own security burden."