Center for Strategic and International Studies

Senior Vice President and Henry A. Kissinger Chair
 

A: A cooperative imperative

If NATO’s current level of ambition is to be retained in the face of severe fiscal hardship, collective reforms and increased multinational collaboration are absolutely essential.   

Projected fiscal constraints will result in a significant contraction of European and US defence capabilities over the next decade. The political will to undertake protracted expeditionary operations in the future will also be diminished by these economic constraints and operational fatigue. This situation makes enhanced European and transatlantic defence cooperation an imperative. 

European military capabilities, already suffering from two decades of under investment, will further decline over the next five years. The three most capable European militaries—the UK, France, and Germany—will see considerable contraction in key areas and reduced spending by smaller European countries will erode their more limited contributions to future NATO and EU operations. Aside from the big three, most other allies will probably be able to contribute no more than a battalion to future expeditionary operations. In the naval domain, European governments will be able to contribute surface combatants for modest counter-piracy and maritime task forces, but reduced force levels will limit operational flexibility and global presence missions. Only the UK and France will retain significant capability to support littoral combat or sustained maritime operations. Air forces will suffer from aging aircraft and declining readiness due to limited training.

The defence budget in the United States is almost certain to be cut by at least $500 billion over the next decade. Some of this contraction will come from the reduced costs of operations as missions in Iraq and Afghanistan wind down. Budget cuts of this magnitude are likely to result in about a ten percent reduction in US force levels, defence procurement, and operational capabilities. Despite a much larger base force, there will be significant cuts in US capabilities that will require accepting a higher level of risk or increased reliance on allies and partners. 

In the face of the projected austerity, European governments and the United States have two basic options in the defence sector: to lower their “level of ambition” or resolve once again to pursue reforms and multinational collaboration to preserve key capabilities and “get best value” from available resources. The first option has proven politically unpalatable for most governments because it requires a candid prioritisation of security threats and admission that it will be accompanied by a higher degree of risk in handling areas where countervailing defence capabilities are being diminished.

In an effort to reconcile NATO’s level of ambition with fiscal realities, Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has urged allies to pursue a series of “Smart Defence” initiatives to get more from available resources through pooling and sharing of capabilities, role specialisation, multinational procurement programs, setting the right priorities, and better coordination of national defence plans to ensure coherence among the projected military postures of Allied governments. Multinational collaboration in force development, acquisition, and research and development, if managed properly, can achieve cost savings, improved interoperability, and stronger political ties. Increased regional defence integration among European countries including the UK and France, the Weimar Group, Nordic-Baltic states, and the Visegrád Group can also enhance capabilities and maximise use of defence resources among like-minded EU members. Such cooperation faces well-known impediments, but European and American leaders must find ways in this period of protracted austerity to overcome them in order to maintain collective defence capabilities essential to protecting mutual interests.