Briefs

Since Islamic State lost its territory in Iraq and Syria, it has adapted its future script according to its circumstances. This Brief explores how the organisation invests in and manipulates an end-of-times narrative that exerts strong appeal for its followers, and will influence its next steps.

This Brief analyses to what extent the Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement of November 2020 has created the basis for a lasting settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh. The deployment of Russian troops in the region may lead to a new ‘freezing’ of the conflict resolution process, instead of politically resolving the conflict itself.

This Brief examines the oil-conflict nexus and analyses the effects of the recent pandemic-induced oil price shock on three vulnerable, conflict-affected countries.

The use of digital technologies in intra-state conflicts has become more frequent. This Brief sheds light on some of the risks associated with their use and how these can negatively impact mediation or negotiation efforts in civil conflicts, and examines how peacemakers might address them.