Conflicts to come

15 scenarios for 2030

18 December 2020

Edited by

Florence Gaub

With contributions from

Natasha E. Bajema, Lotje Boswinkel, Daniel Fiott, Franz-Stefan Gady, Zoe Stanley-Lockman, Kathleen J. McInnis, Nicolas Minvielle, Andrew Monaghan, Katariina Mustasilta, Ali Fathollah-Nejad, Patryk Pawlak, Tobias Pietz, Sinikukka Saari, Stanislav Secrieru, Simona R. Soare, Bruno Tertrais, Olivier Wathelet

“History is littered with mistaken predictions about the future of warfare”: taking this observation as its premise, this Chaillot Paper takes a novel approach to exploring how future conflicts might unfold.

In contrast to traditional schools of conflict anticipation, which rely on science, history and deduction, it combines imagination with an analysis of past and present trends to paint a compelling picture of conflicts to come. This approach, which incorporates elements and tools drawn from science fiction and futuristic art and literature, also takes account of hitherto unknown factors and drivers of conflict – new technological developments, environmental changes, or ideologies yet to be born.

The volume presents 15 fictionalised scenarios that imagine how future conflicts might occur. These scenarios contribute to, and at times challenge, the existing body of assumptions concerning the genesis of conflict, its likelihood and how it might play out. Reflecting the creative and collaborative spirit that underlies this publication, the authors who devised these scenarios embarked on a truly innovative project taking them out of their comfort zone and into the realm of foresight.

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